The Victorian Government needs to fast-track approval of at least 50% of the Northern and Western Geelong Growth Area Precinct Structure Plans if it is to have any hope of meeting its ambitious housing targets, according to one of Geelong’s leading developers.
Richard Bisinella says the area to the west of the Geelong Rind Road represents the largest urban growth project in regional Victoria and is expected to accommodate more than 110,000 new residents, equating to around 50,000 new dwellings.
“Over the past 12 years Geelong has accumulated a shortfall of nearly 23,000 residential lots, but the State could dramatically restore the balance between supply and demand and bring at least this many lots to market within the next 5 years, stabilising land availability, and stimulating much-needed competition that will ultimately drive housing affordability,” he said.
While planning red tape and layers of bureaucracy is certainly slowing these growth areas, Mr Bisinella says responsibility for land supply ultimately sits with the Planning Minister, who acts as both the regulator and umpire.
“While City if Greater Geelong is playing an important role in preparing PSPs, it is too easy to blame this level of Government. It is the State who must ensure that land supply keeps pace with demand.”
The Northern and Western Geelong Growth Area was rezoned in October 2014 by the then Planning Minister, Matthew Guy, under the Coalition State Government.
However, despite being zoned Urban Growth Zone (UGZ), no development can occur until potentially multiple Precinct Structure Plans (PSPs) are approved for each precinct.
“Unfortunately, these processes are now significantly behind the timelines originally anticipated and there is no way Government will achieve its targets at this rate,” Mr Bisinella said.
The issue is highlighted by the fact that the Lovely Banks PSP still has no confirmed approval timeframe and the Creamery Road PSP is yet to be approved and is currently anticipated in late 2026 to 2027, providing for approximately 3,645 residential lots.
“It is misleading to include this rezoned land as available supply,” Mr Bisinella said.
“In reality, not a single house can be built until PSPs are approved, meaning this land is not yet contributing to housing supply. When we instead examine the actual creation of residential lots through residential rezonings, the result is alarming.”
“Looking back over the 12 years since the UGZ rezoning, Geelong has built approximately 37,400 dwellings, comprising 31,400 houses and 6,000 other dwellings such as townhouses, units and apartments.
Mr Bisinella says over the same 12-year period 31,400 housing approvals (largely detached houses) have been granted and only around 8,500 new residential lots have been created through rezonings.
“This represents a net deficit of approximately 22,900 lots over the period. Even when the Part 1 of the Creamery Road PSP is eventually approved, it will only deliver around 3,645 lots — just over one year of Geelong’s traditional lot consumption.”
Mr Bisinella said there is also considerable debate about the Government’s 70/30 housing policy, which aims for 70% infill development and 30% greenfield growth.
“While higher-density housing has an important role to play, the issue in Geelong’s CBD does not appear to be a lack of planning approvals for apartments. Instead, it is about financial feasibility, and this same concern is now emerging in these new growth areas.
“For example, infrastructure levies proposed within the Creamery Road PSP are being raised as a major feasibility challenge by the development sector. These charges are significantly higher than those applied in Armstrong Creek, Geelong’s previous major growth area.
“If these costs are excessive, they risk undermining the viability of delivering affordable residential land to the market.”
Mr Bisinella says a key reason these infrastructure charges have escalated is that there is currently no independent regulator overseeing how they impact affordability.
“Unlike Council rates and water charges, which are regulated by bodies such as the Essential Services Commission, infrastructure levies within PSPs are largely determined through the planning process without the same level of independent scrutiny when it comes to affordability and equity.
“The Planning Minister now faces significant decisions that will directly influence Geelong’s future liveability and housing affordability. Ensuring an adequate supply of zoned land, combined with fair and competitive infrastructure charges, will be essential to delivering housing for the region’s growing population.
“As the November State Election approaches, it will be important to hear how the Opposition plans to address these issues and more importantly how the Government can explain a deficit of 23,000 lots under their watch.
“As the Government’s statewide housing strategy requires about 139,800 new homes to be built in the City of Greater Geelong by 2051, the stakes are high.
“Everyone wants Geelong to succeed. Local government, state government, the development industry and builders all share the same objective — a prosperous and liveable city.
“The construction sector is a cornerstone of the local economy, supporting roughly one in eight jobs in Geelong, while also delivering the housing needed for the community.
“Ensuring an adequate and affordable supply of land is therefore not just a planning issue — it is critical to Geelong’s economic future.”